India significantly increased its crude oil imports from Russia and the United Arab Emirates in June, securing supplies as the Strait of Hormuz began to reopen, with Russian barrels remaining attractive due to discounts and UAE supplies offsetting earlier uncertainties.
India's crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high of approximately 2.73 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, driven by discounts of $2-5 a barrel. This surge comes as the West Asia crisis disrupted supplies from traditional sources and China reduced its own purchases, leading Russia to offer more favourable terms to India.
India's current account deficit could widen to 1.7 per cent of GDP, or about $71 billion, if crude oil prices stay above $90 a barrel for a significant part of the second half of FY27.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
The Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) has denied an RTI request for data on oil imports from Russia, citing its 'commercial and confidential' nature and exemptions under the RTI Act. The Central Information Commission supported this decision, referencing strategic and economic interests.
The Kremlin states it has not received confirmation from India regarding a halt to Russian oil purchases, following claims made by former US President Donald Trump. Russia affirms its commitment to strengthening relations with India.
'India should not trade away its energy security for temporary tariff relief. Neither signing a trade agreement nor stopping Russian oil purchases can protect it from future US action.'
Indian refiners are recalibrating their crude sourcing strategy due to supply disruptions in West Asia, leading to Venezuela and Brazil emerging as top five suppliers in April, replacing traditional sources like Iraq and the United States.
Indian companies, however, are now paying a premium of $6-$7 a barrel for Russian oil, compared with discounts of $8-$10 a barrel before the start of the conflict.
The White House has claimed that India has begun 'scaling back' its oil purchases from Russia at the 'request' of President Donald Trump.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to India this week underscores the complex dynamics of global energy policy, as Washington re-evaluates sanctions on Russian oil buyers amidst India's continued reliance on Russian crude.
India's Russian crude oil imports reached a five-month low in September, dropping to 1.75 million barrels per day, as Indian refiners strategically diversify their energy supplies amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes and robust domestic demand, according to ship tracking data.
'In the current environment, India is effectively paying a premium for supply security and diversification.'
US President Donald Trump has issued a waiver from sanctions under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, citing national interest. This move comes after a deal with Russia for diesel supply and ahead of a US official's visit to India, where concerns about the act's impact on India's oil imports were raised.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
India will continue to purchase Russian oil based on commercial viability and energy security needs, irrespective of US sanctions waivers, according to a senior petroleum ministry official.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
India on Wednesday asserted that its energy purchases from Russia remain 'minuscule' in comparison to its total consumption and that legitimate energy transactions cannot be politicised as energy export from Russia are yet to be sanctioned. The world's third-biggest oil-consuming and importing nation has in recent weeks snapped few cargoes available from Russia at deep discounts as part of its plans to diversify its import basket. These purchases have been commented upon.
The Sports Authority of India (SAI) and Indian Oil Corporation have signed an MoU for Rs 40 crore over two years to bolster boxing in India. This partnership, leveraging CSR funds and SAI's expertise, aims to enhance talent identification, athlete development, coaching, and international exposure for boxers, aligning with the revamped Khelo India Scheme.
China sailed through the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz relatively unscathed even as the impact of its steps shielded other consuming nations from having to pay high crude oil prices.
The US senate last week passed a bill that would allow Washington to impose tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
A fire broke out at ONGC's NQG oil platform off the Mumbai coast on Monday morning due to a ruptured gas cooler finger. The fire was brought under control by personnel from a nearby platform, with no injuries reported. Despite the incident, a company official confirmed that operations have not been impacted, preventing potential significant revenue losses from the crucial Mumbai High field.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown could make crude costlier for India as refiners face fewer supply routes and rising freight and insurance costs.
Investors are set to monitor quarterly earnings, crude oil prices, the Jio Platforms initial public offering, and foreign investor activity in the upcoming holiday-shortened week, according to market analysts.
While India and the US have narrowed their differences, the remaining issues will be the hardest to resolve
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
India's net oil import bill has jumped 32 per cent to Rs 91,486 crore (Rs 914.86 billion) in the first 11 months of 2004-05 fiscal on back of high crude oil prices.
India's oil import bill for the first quarter of the current fiscal has climbed to $4.72 billion while petroleum product exports totalled $706 million.
Analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, crude oil prices, and global bond yields will be the primary factors influencing the Indian stock market this week, alongside macroeconomic data and foreign investor activity.
India is significantly expanding its crude oil sourcing to Latin America, with Venezuela emerging as a major supplier, as geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz compel the world's third-largest oil consumer to diversify its energy supplies.
India's trade deficit reached a six-month high of $31.98 billion in July, driven by a sharp increase in imports, particularly crude oil, electronic goods, coal, and fertilisers. Both merchandise exports and imports recorded their second-highest levels during the same period.
India's oil import bill has swelled 52 per cent to $44.64 billion in 2005-06 on the back of high global oil prices.
'If crude remains above $100 per barrel, with restricted retail-price increases, OMCs could face negative petrol and diesel marketing margins, higher LPG under-recoveries, higher crude-landing, freight and insurance costs, working capital and debt accumulation and inventory losses if crude subsequently corrects sharply.'
India's exports saw a significant increase of 26.12 per cent to USD 43.81 billion in August, leading to a narrowed trade deficit of USD 26.86 billion, driven by strong demand from key global markets and diverse sectors.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio kick-started a three-day visit to India on Tuesday to advance bilateral ties in energy, trade and investment, defence, critical technologies, and exchange views on the West Asia crisis.
China has strongly rejected a US bill that would impose tariffs on countries, including India, for purchasing Russian oil and gas. Beijing views the "Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026" as an act of "long-arm jurisdiction" and interference in its sovereign trade relations, asserting that its economic cooperation with other nations is based on equality and mutual benefit.
The US House of Representatives is debating a bill that would authorise the President to impose sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on its oil and gas trading partners, including India and China. The bill, aimed at pressuring Russia over the Ukraine war, has faced opposition but is expected to be put to a vote.
India's exports saw a significant 23 per cent increase, reaching USD 44.4 billion in September, while the trade deficit narrowed to USD 30.21 billion, according to recent government data.
